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SPECTRUM STUDY REVEALS LACK OF CONSENSUS FOR MAN-MADE GLOBAL WARMING AMONG UK ACADEMICS 

 

A major feature of social media is that they provide deep insight into the views and opinions of people from a broad range of backgrounds across a wide range of issues.  Following the hacking of emails from the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit, we were struck by the ferocity of the backlash against politicians, the United Nations and the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) on blogs, twitter and other social media (click here for details).   As well as monitoring, analysing and evaluating social media, Spectrum also conducts online research and we decided to investigate the claims made by these bodies in more detail.  The results were pretty astonishing.   

 

As charts 1 to 3 reveal, the sample for the study was robust, with 108 academics responding from over 30 of the UK's leading universities (for reasons of confidentiality we cannot provide any further details of the participating institutions).  Of the sample, 63% were professors/academic heads of departments, 36% lecturers and researchers and 1% vice chancellors.  All findings are based on academics from science (55%), engineering (25%), statistics and mathematics (14%), computer science (5%) and environmental management (1%).  In other words, academics who have the technical expertise necessary to make a valid judgement on the evidence for and against man-made global warming.

 

Chart 4 shows the percentage of respondents who agreed with the statements listed.  The vast majority (85%) believe the United Nations is right to conduct an investigation into the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit following the email issue and just over half (52%) that the university's academic reputation has been "severely damaged" as a result.  Around one in three (30%) believe the issue throws doubt over the Climate Research Unit's work but only 17% that it would have a huge impact on the Copenhagen climate change summit. 

 

Chart 5 reveals that while 78% of respondents believe that significant climate change is occurring at a rate more rapid than might be expected from natural causes, between one in three and one in four (29%) are not certain that current climate change is largely the result of man's activity.  So, while climate change might appear to be rapid, this does not mean it has to be happening because of human activity.

 

The critical point from the findings is that there is a clear lack of consensus among those UK academics whose expertise enables them to make a value judgement on the issue, that global warming is man-made.  In fact, fewer than half of the sample (46%) were "very certain" that global warming is down to man.  It is also worth noting that of the academics not convinced global warming is down to man, 64% were professors/academic heads of departments, with the remainder being lecturers and researchers.  These are the people Gordon Brown has dismissed as 'flat-earthers'.

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Chart 1. Sample by type of institution

 

 

Chart 2.  Sample by position/title

 

 

Chart 3.  Sample by expertise (note: 'other' consists of computer scientists and environmental management)

 

 

Chart 4. Percentage of participating UK academics who agree with the above statements

 

 

Chart 5. Percentage of participating UK academics certain and uncertain about the above

 

 

 

Social Media Analysis of 'Climategate'

 

A major driver for carrying out the above study was the response to the content of emails put into the public domain when the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit server was hacked into.  The following chart shows how monitoring and analysing social media can reveal key trends in views and opinions on a daily -- even hourly -- basis, which is not possible through traditional media and would be impractical and expensive using traditional market research. 

 

The very negative reaction in blogs to the email content during the week following their release on the Internet is immediately obvious.  This negative reaction was largely in response to the IPCC's (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) insistence that the leaked emails, written and sent by Professor Phil Jones, did not fundamentally undermine the consensus of scientists in support of man-made global warming.  As the chart shows, coverage on both the IPCC and Phil Jones was greatest when negative sentiment was at a peak, on 21 November, 2009, just a couple of days after the emails appeared on the Internet.

 

The above chart shows negative and positive sentiment in blogs immediately following the publishing of hacked emails from the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit.  Note how negative sentiment peaks when coverage on Professor Phil Jones, author of the emails, and the IPCC is at its highest.

 

While the above chart is based on blogs, twitter can be even more powerful for identifying and tracking opinion.  Spectrum tracks twitter on a 24 x 7 basis, enabling trends to be identified in real-time as they emerge.  The following wordcloud and charts show public reactions on twitter to various issues, including the UEA emails, as the Copenhagen summit on climate change opened in Denmark.  The same technique can be applied to product launches, financial announcements or any other activity that generates public response, with results tracked and reported on a daily, hourly or any other time period required. 

 

The above wordcloud is based on issues identified from twitter as the Copenhagen summit opened in Denmark.  The main points being tweeted were:

• Taxes on cheap airline flights
• BBC funding of climate change 'revolutionaries'
• 'Dirty Dozen' businesses, governments and organisations responsible for emissions
• Hindu declaration on climate change
• UN food body to help farmers fight climate change
• Australian farmers refuse to buy-in to climate change
• The consumption of meat to reduce climate change
• 'Climategate'

 

 

 

The above chart shows sentiment on twitter around the UEA email 'Climategate' issue at the start of the Copenhagen summit.  While UEA and Professor Phil Jones now have net positive sentiment (though both continue to receive negative comments), the UEA's Climate Research Unit (CRU) and the IPCC continue to generate as much, if not more negative than positive coverage.

 

 

The above chart shows that tweets for 'man-made' climate change are significantly more positive than those against it, revealing that man-made climate change supporters were winning the battle for hearts and minds against the sceptics on twitter at the start of the Copenhagen summit.  This is a very good example of how twitter can be used as an alternative, real-time method of gauging opinion, which can be tracked on regular intervals at relatively low cost, especially when compared to traditional market research.

 

 

The above chart shows sentiment against major governments involved in the Copenhagen summit.  While the negative coverage for India is not surprising, given the country is a major emitter of greenhouse gases, the level of negative sentiment against Africa might not have been expected.  In fact this reflects the stance taken by African countries who are seeking financial support from developed nations as a condition for reducing CO2.  It is likely this will change as the summit progresses and different factions win or lose support.

 

 

 

Download Spectrum Consulting's Online Buzz Report 2008 Below

Spectrum's comprehensive research into 'online buzz' is published in its Online Buzz Report 2008.  Based on interviews with 1000 adults representative of the UK population and 112 UK organisations, including commercial companies, public sector bodies, not-for-profit organisations, PR consultancies and other marketing agencies the report is one of the most extensive ever conducted in this vitally important area.  

 

The results have fundamental implications for the UK marketing industries, from PR and advertising to direct mail and digital marketing.  Most importantly, the study revealed that daily readership of online news is now higher than traditional national newspapers for the 15 to 44 age group, which is one of the most important target audiences in the UK.  Although 'paradigm-shift' is a phrase that is frequently over-used, in this instance it is perfectly appropriate.  No wonder newspapers, which have seen readership and advertising revenues fall consistently over recent years are worried, although they can take comfort from the fact that online revenues are going to increase dramatically.

 

Another fundamental point to take from the research is the effect of age on blog and online news readership.  The fact that online news readership currently reduces with age is no surprise, but we wonder whether the implications of what is going to happen has really sunk in for the marketing industries.  What we are going to see over the next few years is likely to be little less than a tsunami washing over the media and marketing industries as younger people grow older and carry the tidal wave of online media with them. 

 

Nor should people expect this to be a gradual change.  Anybody who has read 'The Tipping Point' will be familiar with the rapid changes that can occur when systems reach critical mass.  We believe online media consumption is on the cusp of a tipping point, driven by a combination of low cost broadband, new video services such as BBC iPlayer and continuously developing, low cost technology.  Indeed, within five years there is likely to be little difference between what we now know as a PC and a television.

 

This does not mean that traditional newspapers will disappear or suddenly become unimportant.  It does, however, mean that many of today's media and marketing organisations must finally wake up to the changes that are about to hit them. 

 

Download the Spectrum Consulting Online Buzz Report 2008 below.